Assessing the clinical severity of the Omicron variant in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, using the diagnostic PCR proxy marker of RdRp target delay to distinguish between Omicron and Delta infections – a survival analysis (preprint)

Background Emerging data suggest that SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern (VOC)is associated with reduced risk of severe disease. The extent to which this reflects a difference in the inherent virulence of Omicron, or just higher levels of population immunity, is currently not clear. Methods RdRp target delay (RTD: a difference in cycle threshold value of RdRp - E > 3.5) in the Seegene Allplex™ 2019-nCoV PCR assay is a proxy marker for the Delta VOC. The absence of this proxy marker in the period of transition to Omicron was used to identify suspected Omicron VOC infections. Cox regression was performed for the outcome of hospital admission in those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the Seegene Allplex™ assay from 1 November to 14 December 2021 in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, public sector. Vaccination status at time of diagnosis, as well as prior diagnosed infection and comorbidities, were adjusted for. Results 150 cases with RTD (proxy for Delta) and 1486 cases without RTD (proxy for Omicron) were included. Cases without RTD had a lower hazard of admission (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] of 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.34-0.91). Complete vaccination was protective of admission with an aHR of 0.45 (95%CI 0.26-0.77). Conclusion Omicron has resulted in a lower risk of hospital admission, compared to contemporaneous Delta infection in the Western Cape Province, when using the proxy marker of RTD. Under-ascertainment of reinfections with an immune escape variant like Omicron remains a challenge to accurately assessing variant virulence.

Rapid epidemic expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in southern Africa (preprint)

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic in southern Africa has been characterised by three distinct waves. The first was associated with a mix of SARS-CoV-2 lineages, whilst the second and third waves were driven by the Beta and Delta variants respectively. In November 2021, genomic surveillance teams in South Africa and Botswana detected a new SARS-CoV-2 variant associated with a rapid resurgence of infections in Gauteng Province, South Africa. Within three days of the first genome being uploaded, it was designated a variant of concern (Omicron) by the World Health Organization and, within three weeks, had been identified in 87 countries. The Omicron variant is exceptional for carrying over 30 mutations in the spike glycoprotein, predicted to influence antibody neutralization and spike function4. Here, we describe the genomic profile and early transmission dynamics of Omicron, highlighting the rapid spread in regions with high levels of population immunity.

Higher mortality associated with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in the Western Cape, South Africa, using RdRp target delay as a proxy (preprint)

A novel proxy for the Delta variant, RNA-dependent RNA polymerase target delay in the Seegene Allplex™ 2019-nCoV PCR assay, was associated with higher mortality (adjusted Odds Ratio 1.45 [95%CI 1.13-1.86]), compared to presumptive Beta infection, in the Western Cape, South Africa (April-July 2021). Prior diagnosed infection and vaccination were protective.

Reduced amplification efficiency of the RNA-dependent-RNA-polymerase (RdRp) target enables tracking of the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant using routine diagnostic tests (preprint)

Routine SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in the Western Cape region of South Africa (January-August 2021) found a reduced PCR amplification efficiency of the RdRp gene target of the Seegene, Allplex 2019-nCoV diagnostic assay when detecting the Delta variant. We propose that this can be used as a surrogate for variant detection.

Rapid replacement of the Beta variant by the Delta variant in South Africa (preprint)

The Beta variant of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in South Africa in late 2020 and rapidly became the dominant variant, causing over 95% of infections in the country during and after the second epidemic wave. Here we show rapid replacement of the Beta variant by the Delta variant, a highly transmissible variant of concern (VOC) that emerged in India and subsequently spread around the world. The Delta variant was imported to South Africa primarily from India, spread rapidly in large monophyletic clusters to all provinces, and became dominant within three months of introduction. This was associated with a resurgence in community transmission, leading to a third wave which was associated with a high number of deaths. We estimated a growth advantage for the Delta variant in South Africa of 0.089 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.084-0.093) per day which corresponds to a transmission advantage of 46% (95% CI 44-48) compared to the Beta variant. These data provide additional support for the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant relative to other VOC and highlight how dynamic shifts in the distribution of variants contribute to the ongoing public health threat.

Emergence and rapid spread of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lineage with multiple spike mutations in South Africa (preprint)

Continued uncontrolled transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in many parts of the world is creating the conditions for significant virus evolution. Here, we describe a new SARS-CoV-2 lineage (501Y.V2) characterised by eight lineage-defining mutations in the spike protein, including three at important residues in the receptor-binding domain (K417N, E484K and N501Y) that may have functional significance. This lineage emerged in South Africa after the first epidemic wave in a severely affected metropolitan area, Nelson Mandela Bay, located on the coast of the Eastern Cape Province. This lineage spread rapidly, becoming within weeks the dominant lineage in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape Provinces. Whilst the full significance of the mutations is yet to be determined, the genomic data, showing the rapid displacement of other lineages, suggest that this lineage may be associated with increased transmissibility.

Major new lineages of SARS-CoV-2 emerge and spread in South Africa during lockdown. (preprint)

In March 2020, the first cases of COVID-19 were reported in South Africa. The epidemic spread very fast despite an early and extreme lockdown and infected over 600,000 people, by far the highest number of infections in an African country. To rapidly understand the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in South Africa, we formed the Network for Genomics Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA). Here, we analyze 1,365 high quality whole genomes and identify 16 new lineages of SARS-CoV-2. Most of these unique lineages have mutations that are found hardly anywhere else in the world. We also show that three lineages spread widely in South Africa and contributed to ~42% of all of the infections in the country. This included the first identified C lineage of SARS-CoV-2, C.1, which has 16 mutations as compared with the original Wuhan sequence. C.1 was the most geographically widespread lineage in South Africa, causing infections in multiple provinces and in all of the eleven districts in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), the most sampled province. Interestingly, the first South-African specific lineage, B.1.106, which was identified in April 2020, became extinct after nosocomial outbreaks were controlled. Our findings show that genomic surveillance can be implemented on a large scale in Africa to identify and control the spread of SARS-CoV-2.